The two parties really seem out of touch with their bases.
It seems the Republican party is a coalition of three different constituencies.
- Social Conservatives
- Big Business (Chamber of Commerce types)
The Democrats are:
- Licentious party
Those coalitions are often very uncomfortable. Blacks don't support gay marriage, and libertarians and social conservative often clash.
The gap in my knowledge is just what percentage each group is. I could see a realignment where the social conservatives, blacks and labor could easily coexist and big business, licentious and libertarians could coexist. Who would dominate would be on open question.